Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Where are they Now? A look back at #1 Draft Picks...

Since we officially have 10 seasons in the books in NCAA, I thought it made sense to look back on the 10 #1 draft picks we've had. Analysis is weighted more towards stats for the first 6 picks and ratings for the last 4. For run, I also did a "mock draft" with these ten players.

Season 1

Michael Seay
Age: 28B/T: S/R
Born: Paonia, CO
Position(s): 1B
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Seay is a beast. He is also a cheap beast as evil was able to lock him up to another long term deal. He is on pace to destroy most of the slugging records in the world. I remember when a new owner took over in season 2 and I made a comment along the lines of, "how nice is that first pick from season 1 that you inherited." And his reply was "meh, I wouldn't waste a #1 pick on a 1B." Seay is not your typical power hitting 1B. He is an absolute monster.

Season 2

Vic Escobar
Age: 27B/T: R/R
Born: Brookfield, MO
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Escobar has not been as successful as others that were drafted after him in Season 2's first round. 3 significant shoulder injuries have hurt him throughout his career. He is coming off his best season in season 10 maybe things are on the uptick, however a career 76-58 record with a good, but not great career ERA and WHIP isn't what you hope for with a top pick.

Season 3

Mitchell Spencer
Age: 26B/T: R/R
Born: Sullivan, MO
Position(s): 3B/IF/OF/DH
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How nice for evil doers to have two #1 picks from the first 3 seasons on his squad. This pick would be even better if Spencer's defensive ratings were a smidge higher to allow him to play an average shortstop. However, still a very solid pick as Spencer has won a gold glove while being a really nice hitter with a good OPS and even stealing a few bases.

Season 4

Miguel Barcelo
Age: 25B/T: S/L
Born: Kosciusko, MS
Position(s): P (SP1)
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Barcelo is a really nice talent. If he was on a more successful team, his win loss record would be much better. Since lefty has decided to rebuild, there is a good chance Barcelo can go to team looking to win now. He has been absolute workhorse for Seattle while keeping them in a ton of games. Although I'm sure pitching in Safeco has helped, he is still a top young pitcher in the world.

Season 5

Jack Nicholas
Age: 24B/T: R/R
Born: Houston, TX
Position(s): 2B
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Oh Mr. Nicholas, you have been the source of several conversations on the world chat. His OVR rating is off the charts, but that his helped a ton by his ridiculous "yellow" ratings. Statistically, he has only been above average, although he is coming off his best season, so maybe he is ready to blast off. He split time between 2B and CF last season, but looks to be more of a 2B and could be a top defender there. Not sure his statistics will ever back up the crazy contracts he is going to start requesting in a couple seasons due to his OVR.

Season 6

Wes Cyr
Age: 24B/T: R/R
Born: Cahokia, IL
Position(s): 3B
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Cyr has been a really nice slugger. Once he was moved to 3B from his disastrous time spent at SS, things have gotten better. Really nice player to have anchoring 3B. Not sure Salem will be able to afford both Nicholas and Cyr as their OVR ratings are so high. Should be a slugger to fear for a long time.

Season 7

Ralph Mora
Age: 22B/T: R/R
Born: Evening Shade, AR
Position(s): P (SP3)
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Mora made his ML debut at the end of last season and it looks like the rich just get richer. Current defending world champs will add this nice young gun to their rotation for season 11. Love the control and righty split. Two plus pitches are nice. Should be a good #1 or great #2 for awhile.

Season 8

Jack Daley
Age: 22B/T: R/R
Born: Mancos, CO
Position(s): P (SP6)
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Daley was a very advanced collegiate coming out of the draft and actually made his ML debut in Season 9. Absolute CY Young Candidate for many seasons once Boise gets on the winning track and Daley can get some more W's. Control and both splits are excellent and Daley boasts 4 above average pitches. Should be able to pitch a ton of innings as well with the STA/DUR ratio. Great pick.

Season 9

Vic Keefe
Age: 23B/T: L/L
Born: Lees Summit, MO
Position(s): P (SP4)
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Poor Vic has spent both seasons at AA and wants a change of scenery! He should be a nice starter once he develops which will be sooner than later. Probably will be a staple in Portlands rotation by next season at the latest. Keefe doesn't look like a shutdown #1 and there were a couple other pitchers in this draft that are rated higher by scouts. Still, he is nothing to sneeze at and should be a good, solid pitcher for a long time.

Season 10

Danny Smoltz
Iowa City
Age: 19B/T: R/R
Born: Irving, TX
Position(s): SS
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Smoltz should definitely be moved to 3B. But once he gets there and develops, he can be a top fielding, power hitting third basemen like Cyr and Spencer. He absolutely demolished Rookie League pitching and looks to do the same at Low A. And hey, if he ever needs to pitch, his fastball porjects to an 84!

Mock Draft

All ten of these guys are premium players to one degree or another. This is NOT to be seen as a slight against any of these guys. I took into account, stats, ratings, projections, and possible or current contract demands vs production. If I had to pick from these guys, here is how my mock draft would go...

1. Michael Seay
2. Jack Daley
3. Mitchell Spencer
4. Miguel Barcelo
5. Wes Cyr
6. Danny Smoltz
7. Ralph Mora
8. Vic Keefe
9. Jack Nicholas
10. Vic Escobar

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