Saturday, March 24, 2012

Amateur Draft First Round Review - Season 16

As always, there are just my thoughts using my budgeted scouting...I hope everyone enjoys.

1. Oakland - Red Callaway - Definitely don't love the pick as the #1 selection. If he could actually field SS at the ML level adequately, I might change my mind, but he looks to be a 2B or 3B and will excel defensively at either position. It is not easy finding a solid hitter that excels at either position so in that respect, he'll be a solid addition to the team. It also looks like he'll be willing to stick around for the duration of his career if the Golden Bears choose to do so.

z0601 - "When a team ends up with the first overall pick in the draft, you expect to draft a player that will be the face and impact player for the organization for years to come. Well, those players were no where to be found this season. Red Callaway will be a very good player for the Golden Bears at the ML level. He will be able to play at almost any position we need him to. He has the speed and power to turn a double into a triple and be a terror on the base path. Not the player we wanted, but someone that will most certainly help us in building Oakland into a contender. As for our 17th pick in Ozzie Koh . Could be a decent short innings player out of the pen if he wasn't asking for too much money. He will go to college and drink beer and maybe have a nice college career if he is lucky."

2. Iowa City - Jerry Hickman - Hickman is another slightly underwhelming selection. Nothing wrong as a top 10/15 pick, but to go #2 seems like a reach due to his split projection. Although he does project to have two outstanding pitches and that will go along way. He is another guy that loves Iowa City and would love to stick around for his career which is a nice bonus.

3. Arizona - Casey Keller - The good news is that Keller should be ready pretty quickly to help the Sun Devils continue their rebuilding process. The bad news is that Keller seems like another reach. However, with three "reaches" in a row, maybe this draft was just really underwhelming in talent. Keller looks like he'll have the glove for SS, but his other defensive ratings will fall short. Couple that with a very average splits and no other excellent batting ratings and I think teams typically would want a bit more from this high of a pick.

4. Cincinnati - Richard Foster - Foster is a very similar player to Keller, but I think he is a more impressive prospect. He definitely is not a SS, but should do well defensively at 3B and hit for some power which is difficult to find.

5. Memphis - Roger Crespo - This is my favorite pick out of the top 5. It would be a "homerun" if his control projected higher. Even with only average control, his other pitching capabilities should allow him to be a really solid #2 pitcher in the bigs.

mh17: "Crespo fell off a bit, but continues to show great health, good character, and three guality pitches. As it stands know he should prove to be a good middle of the rotation guy."

6. Portland - Mike Greer - I really like this pick, but I also don't mind average defensive catchers as long as they are plus hitters and Greer definitely fits the bill. These types of players are difficult to find and Portland pounced on him when he was still on the board at #6.

sirius07 - "Mike is a very good hitter. His contact is great with good power. He is a righty hitter who is very good against lefty pitcher. On the denfensive side, it's an average player. He may play as backup catcher filling the DH role in the lineup. That guy may hit for .300 with 30 home runs and have a high SLG% with his great eye."

7. Huntington - Felix Owen - This pick all comes down to his righty split. But he excels at other pitching ratings and should be a mainstay in Huntingtons rotation (assuming hurricane doesn't trade him). nothing wrong at all grabbing him in the back half of the top 10.

hurricane384: Felix Owen rated as one of the top SP on my board...his vsR is lower than I usually go for, but after looking at the rest of the crew, I felt that he was worth taking a shot on. Probably drafted about 10 spots too high, but I just didn't have a good feel for this draft this season.

8. New Orleans - Esteban Crespo - Another Crespo! Really like this pick as long as he develops enough to play 2B even at an average level. Again, I'm willing to take an average defensive player at this position if he can perform at a high level offensively. If he ends up being relegated to the OF then the pick's value drops as its not that difficult to find guys who can play corner OF positions and his for some good power and average.

coachsimon: "While the Bayou Bengals hoped to draft a pitcher in round one Esteban Crespo looks like he can develop into an excellent offensive weapon. Drafted as a second baseman it is unlikely he will spend much rime in the infield. He looks like he has the tools to have an excellent approach at the plate with above average power but will likely be moved to LF, 1B and DH before getting to the big show."

9. Louisville - Dwight Wood - Interesting selection. If he actually develops to his defensive projections than he looks like a gold glove level SS with some solid pop, another tough position to fill. however, he is already 22 and is still significantly off from his projections. If he doesn't hit them and is relegated to 2B or 3B then the value drops because his bat isn't that great.

10. New York - Felix Dunston - Probably could just cut and paste my comment from the above selection. However, I think Dunston has a better shot at hitting his defensive projections and with that bat, it could be a very solid pick.

mamidu - "dunston was rated higher on my board but i am sure he fell due to his low eye vRHP.
He is an excellent defensive ss that hits for power and has very good contact. i would have hoped for a more well rounded player at this spot, but he will definitely turn out to be a great defensive ss with avg offensive #s"

11. Seattle - Anthony Pavano - This is a pretty uninspired selection. He'll have to play a COF position, but doesn't really have the bat to warrant a full time slot. I think they could have gotten a more impactful selection out of this spot.

12. Boise - Terry Lee - Could be the steal of the draft, but I have no idea what a 0 makeup guy develops like. It will be very interested to watch. He is a phenomenal hitting catcher prospect.

abesmem: I had him rated #1 on my draft board and was lucky to get him picking 12th. He'll hit for average and great power vs both lefties and righties and his 100 rating for batting eye will be an interesting test of that category. I am a bit worried about his durability and he may be a head case, but he's cathcer! He is solid defensively and is a very good pitch caller. He's starting out in Low A.

13. Kansas City - Torey Cishek - Don't love this pick because I like higher rated defensive players at CF and unfortunately he won't be able to play 2B because he is left handed. If he ends up having to play a COF position then his bat, specifically his splits are scary. Although he does project well at Contact, Eye, and Speed. I think he was taken a bit too high.

14. Jackson - Steven Newsome - Personally, I'd try Newsome at 3B to try to make the most value out of this pick. Right now he is playing mostly in the OF, but feel like his hitting talents can be maximized if the Rebels can get away with playing him at 3B.

15. Buffalo - Willie Dietz - This draft is shaping up to be pretty talent poor. Dietz definitely will not have the glove to compete at SS so the Bulls will have to try him out at 2B or 3B and hope that he can hold his weight offensively powered by a pretty strong right split.

16. Chicago - Ken Clayton - Clayton held out and ended up getting a big signing bonus for this slot. Considering some of the picks above, I'd say Clayton could/should have gone higher. He should develop into a solid 2B who can hit leadoff against righties and do a good job. Nothing to sneeze at in a draft like this.

17. Oakland - Ozzie Koh - Hasn't signed and its a 50/50 shot he will since he also wants to play D1 College Football

18. Philadelphia - Emmanuel Villa - Interesting selection. 3 of his defensive ratings are sky high, but his glove looks below average at best. Lots of highlight plays, but booting the routine grounder. Not a guy I'd usually go after, but I know others have a lot of success with similar players.

jeanpaul22 - "We're very pleased with this pick, Villa was second on our list, our scouts like him a lot, he should develop into a very solid defensive SS. On the offensive side, he should be a bottom of the order type of hitter. We are very happy to had some talent in our organization, especially at shortstop."

19. Charleston - Jordan Valdes - I think this is great value in a sub par draft. Valdes should turn into an above average reliever who will eat a lot of innings.

20. Columbus - Ryan Meusel - Not a lot to love here. At this point in a world's maturation, you're typically going to be able to find some free agents at decent prices that will hit better at 1B, corner OF positions.

NY_Amazins - "Ryan Meusel is an Big League hitting prospect, has speed, power and projects as a leftfielder or 1st basemen."

21. Los Angeles - Fernando Martinez - Martinez probably won't progress enough to be a SS as 3 of his defensive ratings fall short and his glove rating is barely average. The big question is, can his bat be good enough to slot in at 2B or 3B?

22. Helena - Buddy Ferguson - Can Ferguson rely on his contact, batting eye, and speed couple with solid defensive ratings to get past his average splits? If his splits were a bit higher than he'd be a prototypical lead off guy.

drichar138: "I saw 9 good players I liked in this draft and unfortunately, Buddy Ferguson was not one of them. When you are picking in the 20's you can't be too disappointed when you don't get a top 10 player, but I was honestly hoping for a little more. Ferguson projects to be an okay 2B defensively with good contact/eye/speed at the plate. Those ratings together are nice but his splits are not that great and could limit his big league potential."

23. Texas Tech - Sammy Danks - Love this selection as we enter the last quarter of the draft. With a fantastic combo of splits and pitches, he should develop into a shut down closer. Great value here and someone I would take over 10 higher selections, if not more.

mongoose_22 - "We decided to look for some bullpen help with our lower 1st round pick this season, and are very happy with the drafting of Sammy Danks. He is a hard thowing lefty, and should develop two dominant pitches. In his one college season, he proved equally effective versus both right handed batters and left handed batters. If he can stay healthy, our scouts believe he will develop into a top flight set-up man who can pitch 70ish innings per season."

24. Detroit - Nerio Diggins - Should supply some good hitting although the splits are worrisome. Might be best fit as part of a platoon against right handed pitchers.

tk21775: a DH that has close enough defense to play 1B for me. Has a little power and good eye and contact.

25. Richmond - Turner Sanford - Solid if not spectacular SP prospect which is great value this late in the first round, especially in a weak draft. Nice selection.

cmtheime: Sanford looks to be a definite future BL starter, so I'm happy with that at this spot in the draft.

26. Minnesota - Denard Rivera - What a gamble. No one thought he was going to sign and the Golden Gophers rolled the dice anyone, probably aided once they realized this was such a weak draft. They paid a huge signing bonus to convince him to sign, but now have a prospect that arguably could have gone in the top 5 in a draft like this.

27. Syracuse - Santiago Matos - Matos should be a solid addition to the bullpen eventually. He won't have the STA to get away with being a starter. He'll be a nice bridge between the starter and closer.

evil doers: "We really wish that Santiago Matos would have the make-up to eventually be in the rotation but that doesn't appear to be the case. We like him though and think he can fill a few different positions in the bullpen. Not the best control but he's got a killer sinker and a decent sure. Lefties nor righties scare him. He'll be on the big club for sure."

28. Charlotte - Kenny McIntyre - Meh. Nothing too exciting to see here. SP prsopect who at best will be a #5 starter, but probably has more of a future as a long reliever/mop up guy.

29. Nashville - Troy McEnroe - Really nice selection. Wish he had a bit more control, but should still be a really nice bullpen piece.

cctigerfan - "Nashville's first round pick, Troy McEnroe , should develop into a solid contributor out of the bullpen. He has 2 solid pitches and, with some work on his control, he should see some solid ML time in 3 to 4 seasons."

30. Dover - Pablo Delgado - I doubt he'll ever make it to the bigs unless he gets DITR status. The only reason his OVR is so high is due to his yellow ratings. Maybe he can make it as a 25th guy on the roster as a pinch runner?

byers61 - "Dover drafted 1b Pablo Delgado with pick 30. Not a future all-star, but what do you do that low in the draft? He is a curious fella, with too little power for a power position, but has 96 speed and projects to 87 baserunning. Maybe he will he diamond in the rough his defense to become a center fielder. He has the bat for that."

31. Salem - Hasn't signed and didn't scout him.

daddiothree - "After throwing the majority of the Beaver's prospect budget at their #1 pick, Nathan Walker rejected Salem's more than generous proposal and decided to finish out his college career. Leaving a gloomy bunch of mediocre prospects. The season 16 draft class headed to Salem will be lead by 1b Darnell Myers and pitcher George Busby both of which will be lucky to have an average career in the ML."

32. Fargo - Jeremy Wolf - Nothing much to see here as Wolf isn't good enough defensively for SS and isn't good enough offensively for another position. Might eventually make the bigs as a defensive replacement utility player.

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