Thursday, April 8, 2010

Season 8 Amateur Draft First Round Recap

The following is based off of my 17 million in Advanced Scouting. I hope everyone understands that this is just one person's thoughts and I hope it sparks some discussion!

1. Boise - Jack Daley - Can't really find anything wrong with this pick. Daley is definitely an "ace" who should be a cornerstone of Boise's rotation for seasons to come. I just took a second look to try and find a "fault" and really couldn't come up with one. He'll be a workhorse, K a lot hitters, and you have to like that makeup rating as he should be able to pitch at a high level for a long time.

2. Columbus - Homer Konerko - What a great name. How can he fail? Lots of things to like about Konerko. Awesome splits and pitches. The one big concern is his stamina/durability combo. Not sure if he is a starter. He is currently being used as a starter in High A, but is only averaging 3.68 IP per outing which obviously won't get it done. He might end up being a "super closer" who pitches 120 - 130 IP per season.

3. Little Rock - Bill Perez - Great closer prospect. I'm not sure how many drafts I've seen where two closer prospects go in the top three (assuming Konerko is a better relief/closer prospect).

4. Fargo - Mitch Huckaby - Great position prospect, although probably not a SS with that glove rating. Could be a gold glover at 3B or or one of the corner outfields. Maybe mike decides to not worry about the errors thinking having such a premier hitter at SS is worth it?

5. Jackson - Yonder Santos - Very good SP prospect. Santos should win a lot of games for the Rebels. Solid splits with a couple plus pitches.

6. Helena - Dorian Griffin - Cf prospects are so hard to find that you sometimes overlook their flaws just to grab one. His health rating makes me a little nervous. Definitely has a the glove for CF, but the range will probably lead to some minus plays.

7. Texas - Martin Dresden - Splits seems to be a little iffy for a top ten pick, but a solid pitching prospect. Should get a lot of K's with that velocity. Would have been nice to have a legitimate third pitch.

8. Chicago - Matty Canseco - Other than that health rating, a very nice pick at #8. Unfortunately it seems like guys that have sub 40 health ratings almost always suffer at least one major injury. Arte will be crossing his fingers that doesn't happen here.

9. New Orleans - Matthew Rolle - His OVR seems a little inflated due to his "yellow ratings." This will probably mean that down the line he'll ask for more money than he is worth. He is a decent 2B prospect, but not sure he was worth investing a top 10 pick in.

10. Dover - Albie Tejeda - Its doubtful he has the defensive ratings to stay at 2B. Probably needs to move to LF and at that point is he a good enough hitter? I'm just not sure. His splits and eye definitely help, but contact and power aren't great. Another iffy top ten pick.

11. Minnesota - Sam Shea - Hasn't signed. Chose not to sign or Minnesota out of money?

12. Portland - Kenneth Wall - If Wall's right split was higher this would be a great pick. With that being said, he's a decent SP prospect who will slot in nicely in the middle of the rotation.

13. Iowa City - Hank Gordon - I've never had a ton of success with 3 pitch SP's, but that doesn't really mean much as its such a small sample size. Gordon is another nice pitcher. In my opinion, it would have been great if he had a 4th pitch, but those splits and velocity could very well make up for it.

14. Huntington - Gavin Mills - Really nice selection for the Thundering Herd. Mills should be an above average defensive 3B and will hit a ton. Great value as we enter the middle of the draft.

15. Memphis - Phil Rapp - Solid splits, 4 good pitches. The big question mark is control. Can the aforementioned ratings overcome average control? My experience has been these guys can go out and throw 8 inning of shutout ball and then come right back and get blown out. It will help playing in Charleston's pitchers park.

16. Charleston - Jason Cole - Probably won't be a starter with his sta/dur rating, but will be a very effective middle reliever and hopefully will be good for 100 IP each season.

17. Cincinnati - Dwayne Hodges - Great value here. A great hitting SS prospect at 17? Can't pass that up. His range is a little low, but his other three def ratings will make up for it. As of now this is probably the best value so far.

18. New York - Milton Hermanson - Carbon copy of Huntington's pick. Another very nice value here. His health rating is a little low, but at pick 18, you can't pass up a talent like Hermanson.

19. Buffalo - Elvis Fox - Decent hitting, great glove SS. Solid selection. These are tough to find as well. Fox's def ratings are gold glove caliber and he'll be a decent hitter at the same time. Nothing wrong with that.

20. Charlotte - Endy Latham - The Heels will be hoping his defensive ratings progress enough to stay at 2B so we can take advantage of a great hitting 2B. If not, then he is probably destined for LF which would diminish his value. Health rating hurts a bit as well.

21. Florida - Kip Jennings - Great closer prospect. He'll be limited to a small number of innings, but will be very effective when he is in there.

22. Cincinnati - Kirk Bradford - Solid hitting prospect. Unfortunately he is only suited to LF, 1B, or DH, but he should be a solid hitter for the Bearcats.

23. Oakland - Jeremy Livingstone - Great closer prospect! Surprised he lasted this long as he gives the other closer prospects a run for their money with those ridiculous splits.

24. Salem - Gregory Cloud - Really nice pick here for Salem. I'm sure jarazix was happily surprised a SP prospect of Cloud's caliber slipped all the way to 24. Unfortunately, Cloud has already had some bad luck and suffered a relatively major injury. Hopefully he can bounce back.

25. Detroit - Dennis Snyder - With those splits and pitches, Snyder is probably destined for a back of the rotation/spot starter/long reliever role for the Wolverines.

26. Scranton - Bobby Lollar - Decent hitting prospect for Scranton. Wish I could write more, but he is what he is.

27. Seattle - Bill Adams - Decent relief prospect. Unfortunately has suffered a really bad injury and he is already 21 so who knows if he'll reach his projections.

28. Anaheim - George Stokes - Maybe a middle of the rotation guy? Thats probably stretching it through. His lefty split is nice, but righty split is very average and only three pitches with one of them being around 40. Probably destined for long relief.

29. Kansas City - Damaso Mota - It will be interesting to see how Mota does. His splits are solid, but 4 pitches are very average. Decent selection this late in the first round though.

30. Syracuse - Gustavo Sivilla - I'm guessing Sivilla will end up being a 4th OF type. He'd be a great platoon against righties, but will be ineffective vs lefties. He does project to 100 durability so he has that going for him!

31. Arizona - Glendon Reichert - Nothing wrong with picking up a great glove SS that can hit lefties pretty well this late in the first round. Nice value.

32. Florida - Kane Fordyce - Another nice selection to round out the first round. Those splits are great this late. Pitches could be better, but if they were, he'd have been picked up earlier.

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