Thursday, March 5, 2015

Season 28 - Amateur Draft Review

Thank you to everyone who participated.  I apologize for the format issues.  Its best when they are sitemailed to me, but several sent trade chats instead and thats where you see the type change.

As always, these reviews are using a mixture of my HS/Coll/ADV Scouting and analysis.  Without a doubt, people will disagree :-) Enjoy!

1. LouisvilleStan Boyd

Boyd is a  nice pitching prospect, but not someone you'd typically see taken with the first pick in the draft.  This was probably caused by a bad combination of poor talent overall in the draft with bad luk on who Louisville was able to see. Regardless, he'll be a good, if not great ML contributor.

chase39 - We drafted Stan Boyd with the first pick. With only 16 in HS scouting, we didn't see everyone. Stan will be a start in the uphill climb to rebuilding this team, as we focus on signing pitchers in the draft.

2. New OrleansElmer Truman

I am guessing Louisville was not able to see Truman because he is head and shoulders above Boyd as a pitching prospect and definitely more of the type you'd see get selected #1 overall. Truman should develop into a high end SP with a great righty split along with two ++ pitches.

victorzhao - "Our organization was ecstatic to be in a position to select Elmer Truman with our second overall pick. We had him rated head and shoulders above any other prospect on our draft board. We were hoping he'd still be there when we picked, and thank goodness he was! We hope that in 3-4 seasons, he will be anchoring the staff."

3. JacksonKyle Logan

Our 3rd SP in a row is selected and Logan's fate will depend on how much Jackson can develop those splits.  Everything else checks out rather nicely, but if Logan can't get his splits into the mid 60's than he won't live up to the top 3 selection.  Should end up being a solid middle of the rotation starter.

4. PortlandGene Acosta

I'd like this pick a lot more if Acosta projected to a higher PC and could be a legit catcher.  Since he does not, he will probably be a DH and typically you'd want an all world hitting DH to select him so high in the draft.  Acosta has some great splits, but his contact and power ratings are much lower.

5. Chicago - David White hasn't signed

6. SalemFarmer Valentine

The most ML ready SP is now off the board as the Beavers select Valentine out of college.  The Salem GM was very vocal about how unhappy he was regarding the talent in the draft (he wasn't wrong), but he made the most out of it with a solid, if not spectacular prospect in Valentine.  If he can develop those first two pitches enough to offset his second two, then he should be a nice SP one day, sooner than later.

ajwalton - With the 6th pick in this year's draft, Salem looked to nab a top notch position player after loading up on pitching in recent seasons. Unfortunately, our scouts were unable to see a position player worthy of the draft slot in the entire player pool. Given the talent pool, we are happy with the selection of Farmer Valentine at the 6 spot, as he was one of two draft-worthy prospects we could see. He should be an above average contributor at the ML level.

7. Portland (type D) - Vicente Urbina

Portland's second pick of the first seven picks lands them a JUCO pitcher who should be ready in a couple seasons.  His lefty split is a little worrisome, but the Ducks hope his other ratings will balance those out.

8. Kansas CityMarwin Iglesias

Iglesias is our first true positional prospect, but he almost assuredly will not be a SS when he makes his debut in the bigs.  The Wildcats will hope he can become a great fielding 2B or 3B with a decent bat.  I wish he had a bit more power to give.  He also apparently is one heck of a baserunner.

llcc - The Kansas City Wildcats selected Marwin Iglesias with the 8th pick in this years draft. He is projected to play second base. He should hit around .270 with 15 homers per year.

9. Iowa CityGreg Romine

Romine projects to be a nice hitting corner outfielder.  He was a 3B in college and still playing there in Rookie Ball, but his glove will never be good enough to stick there.  His hitting projections are through the roof, but I think my scouts are drunk because he isn't going to gain 45 pts in contact

10. MemphisPablo Servet

I'm surprised Servet fell to #10.  I think he projects to be better than a couple of the other pitchers who went earlier.  Nice value pick for the Tigers.  Servet looks above average in many of the key pitching categories and should serve Memphis well.

mh17 - While the Tiger scouts may have missed a couple of quality prospects, Memphis readily welcomes Servet to town. Primarily an off-speed pitcher, Servet posses great control wih two quality pitches and should be able to pitch deep into games if he can stay out of trouble. We would like to see some improvement in his left/right splits and third and fourth pitches. If he stays on course, Pablo should fit nicely in a middle to back of the rotation role. 

11. ColumbusJim Joyner

Joyner will never be a SS and doesn't look worth of being a pick so high in a draft, but this isn't a usual draft and the scarcity of good players allowed for guys like Joyner to get picked higher and get paid.  In a perfect world, he'll develop enough to be a solid 2B or 3B.  Worst case he could be a utility player.

12. FargoDouglas Langwell

I love this pick if Langwell can come close to his projections and especially if he can play average at 3B.  Power hitting 3B who aren't a travesty at 3B are hard to find.  The issue is Langwell is already 22 so not sure how realistic it is to think he'll get to those numbers, but he should be really solid.

bigsammich - Very pleased to have Doug fall to us at 12 when he was ranked third on the Bison big board. Should develop into a reliable 3rd baseman or corner outfielder. Nice wheels with good power should turn him into a doubles machine. The front office considered this an extremely weak draft class, but are pleased to have acquired Doug at #12.

13. HelenaHank Walters

Walters is a nice selection in a weak draft.  It will be interesting to see if his DUR/STA combination can improve to the point where he is a legit starter.  He could excel as a super reliever as well.

drichar138 - The Grizzlies front office is pleased to land Hank Walters with the 13th pick of the draft. This was a relatively weak draft class, so to get a future #3 caliber starting pitcher at this spot was a nice get. Walters has pinpoint control and a plus fastball. He doesn't have a dominate pitch, but is pretty balanced in his ability to get outs against hitters on either side of the plate.

14. BuffaloLou Ingram

I typically like to see more power in 1B, but Ingram can definitely put the bat on the ball.  If Buffalo can develop his splits and eye, he could be a really high OBP guy for them.

glowguy - The Bulls went for big lefty first baseman, Lou Ingram. We hope he can eventually replace our current frist baseman Jim "Koolaid" Jones when the time comes.

15. BoiseLouis Humphries

Abes did a great job summing up my thoughts exactly.  His control is a huge issue.  There have been players who can overcome it, but typically their other ratings are sky high.  I always follow interesting cases like this though, will be fun to see how he does.

abesmem - With the 15th overall pick Boise was able to snag SP Louis Humphries. OK, so he’ll have a little difficulty finding the plate at times, but with a projected 100 stamina he can pitch all day (so, is that actually a good thing?) Regardless, he’s got very good splits and can throw 5 pitches (4 well). If his spits develop as projected, is he should become a pretty good ML starter. Not bad with the 15th pick.

16. SyracuseDamian Durham

I love this pick and am annoyed he landed in my division.  In such a weak draft, why not take a great hitting catcher who's only issue is he'll be limited to 100-120 games.  He has a monster bat.  The Tar Heels had him rated pretty high hoping his low OVR would allow him to drop.  No luck there.

17. Cincinnati - Samuel Booker hasn't signed.

18. OaklandAvery Haddad

Haddad projects to be a middle to end of the rotation SP who relies on his command of the strike zone to overcome his lack of great pitches and average splits.

mjmage - Avery Haddad was ranked 5th overall on my board and was taken in the 18th spot. He is a future ML right-handed starting pitcher with top notch control. He has 5 pitches currently and has good effectiveness vs. righties and lefties. Should be a #3-4 starter in rotation.

19. DoverSherm Gonzales

I think Gonzales' future hands on how well Dover can develop his righty split.  If that bad boys hovers at or below 50, then he could be lit up.  If they can get it over that hump moving in the right direction then his control and pitches will help him be an innings eater for the Blue Hens.

byers61 - With the 19th pick in the draft, The Blue Hens were happy to get SP Sherm Gonzales. He will be an absolute workhorse for years to come. Superior control should help make up for marginal splits, and if the catchers keep him on his best three pitches, he should be a winner. We had him 4th overall and were thrilled to get him at 19.

20. Cincinnati (type A for Willard Perez from Seattle) - Walker Fedroff

I like Fedroff as a solid future reliever for the Bearcats, but a coupe relievers were selected later in the draft who project to be even better than Fedroff so this could be categorized as a slight reach.

21. Texas TechJohn Page

Page will be a good piece to the puzzle for the Red Raiders, but is a guy you can typically find relatively cheaply in free agency.  He'll play a host of positions (utility player) and provide a spark off the bench.

mongoose_22 - The Texas Tech Red Raiders were wildly indifferent to the late 1st round selection of John Page. Page is one of the more polished players in the draft as a 22 year old senior. He projects out to developing into a serviceable role player, filling out the bench for an ML team. He should be able to play most positions (other than SS and 3B and possibly CF) with speed to burn. He does make stupid decisions on the bases and can't hit very well.

22. ColumbusKen Langford

Langford makes contact a lot, but isn't particularly great at facing righties or lefties.  I'm actually not quite sure how that make sense, but those are the ratings! If his eye can develop well and combined that with his excellent contact rating and cross your fingers the splits get there, he could be a 3rd or 4th outfielder.

23. New Orleans - Dan Oeltjen hasn't signed.

24. PhiladelphiaTyler Heckathorn

Woah, almost $9 million dollars to convince Heckathorn to sign.  Signing him is better than not, but another avenue to approach would have been to take the comp pick for next season when hopefully the draft is a bit stronger and utilize the cash to sign an IFA.  The Owls decided it was better to take the bird in hand.  I actually disagree with jeanpaul, I think he can definitely contribute at C and he would be way more valuable there especially at that price point.  But I also am perfectly fine giving up a little defense for more offense at catcher.

jeanpaul22 - More a DH than a catcher, good pitch call but his arm is so-so accuracy and strength. But his bat is hot, good contact, very good power, good eye and his split is OK. The only problem, he probably won't sign.

25. New YorkEsmil Tarasco

Unfortunately I don't see Tarasco ever being more than a AAAA player and if he does contribute in the bigs, it should be as a mop up guy.  Always frustrating to pick late in a weak draft.

26. Charlotte (type A for Domingo Prado from Little Rock) - Les Lilly

I could not be happier with the Lilly selection.  Obviously I hoped for a stronger draft considering all of the type A's I lost, but I feared the worst after I spent most of my budget on an IFA to the point where I had to select guys who were looking to sign.  I think Lilly can be a very effective reliever and arguably could have significantly higher.  His one major issue is his stamina and we are hoping he can add 4-8 points to his current number.

27. Charleston (type A for David Rodriguez from Detroit) - Addison Posada hasn't signed.

28. Charleston - Armondo Vazquez hasn't signed.

29. Detroit (type D) - Toru Nomura

I'd like this pick more if LH specialist actually worked, but it really doesn't. Nomura runs the risk of getting lit up by righties, but in a draft like this, you take what you can get this low in the first round and he is definitely a ML contributor.

tk21775 - With the #29th selection the Wolverines got the 2nd player on our draft board with Toru Nomura. Normally that would make us question how serious our scouts took the draft but overall pleased with him at this spot. He'll be a nice relief pitchers that should be able to handle lefties very well. At this point in the draft after seeing the prospects we were simply happy to get a guy that should contribute in the majors when he's ready.

30. NashvilleNate Flier

Flier is a type of pitcher I mentioned above who's lack of control may be overcome by really good splits and solid pitches.

cctigerfan - The Nashville Commodores drafted Nate Flier with the 29th pick. Although Flier lacks control, the Commodores hope he can be effective. If his pitches develop and he gains some control, Flier should be able to be a future big league contributor.

31. Richmond (type D) - Alex Balaguert

Nice pick here as the Spiders take one of the best defensive players in the draft.  He should be a very good defensive SS.

32. RichmondMike Varitek

I don't think Varitek will make it out of the minors as he doesn't excel anywhere and is pretty bad defensively.  He doesn't have the bat to play 1B in the majors. (maybe this is bulletin board material for him)

33. Arizona - Rick Donovan hasn't signed

Rick Donovan sucks, but the Arizona front office cannot complain as they did not invest anything in the draft. Ceiling looks like an ML bench player, but more likely a AAA journeyman.

34. CharlotteTroy Frasor

Similar to what I wrote about Lilly above, I'm really pleased with the Frasor signing.  He is a nice relief pitcher who should be a solid contributor.  It could have been a lot worse.

35. AnaheimTerry Lee

Lee has a long way to go in his development, but if/when he gets there, he looks to have the bat to be a part of the ML squad.


Seattle - mcgupp - With their first round pick, the Seatle Huskies signed FA 3B Willard Perez. So far I'm pleased with the choice. Perez has been an upgrade both offensively and defensively. Factor in a weak looking class, and we'll continue to try to win while we have a good pitching staff. In the second round the team took SS Vincente Portillo. He appears to be the AAA RF'er of the future.

Little Rock - sgmedia - "The Razorbacks will be making no effort to sign our top draft pick (Kevin Clements, 3rd round, 115th overall). We simply feel that $5.5 million is unrealistic for a third round pick. We wish Kevin well moving forward in his college and baseball careers."

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